Energy system models used for the Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios

Energy system modelling provides the backbone of the NCES analyses. Two modelling approaches are combined; optimisation analyses of investments in all sectors using the ON-TIMES model, and dispatch and operation analysis focused on the electricity system using the BALMOREL model. . ON-TIMES covers the five Nordic countries. The sectors covered and their definitions are given in the table below. BALMOREL covers power systems in Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Note that Balmorel does not cover Iceland. Additionally, all numbers for 2020 in the report are modelled results and may differ from official statistics.

ON-TIMES - Open Nordic TIMES – has been developed during the project and all model files are shared openly from the GitHub link.

ON-TIMES include the five Nordic countries and all energy conversion in all sectors. It is an optimisation model minimizing total system cost given certain constraints as e.g. climate targets. In this study ON-TIMES are used to find the cheapest pathways to fulfilling each of the Nordic countries climate targets, with special focus on sector coupling and potential synergies.

ON-TIMES is from the TIMES modelling family, a modelling concept and framework developed through more than 30 years in the IEA, TCP, ETSAP (International Energy Agency, Technology Collaboration Platform, Energy Technology System Analysis Program) (https://iea-etsap.org/).

Documentation for ON-TIMES:

The model structure is based on the TIMES-DK model and developments in the Shift project expanded to include the other Nordic countries. For more information on the mode please see: TIMES-DK: Technology-rich multi-sectoral optimisation model of the Danish energy system, Olexandr Balyk, Kristoffer S. Andersen, Steffen Dockweiler, Maurizio Gargiulo, Kenneth Karlsson, Rikke Næraa, Stefan Petrović, Jacopo Tattini, Lars B. Termansen, Giada Venturinia. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2018.11.003

• For mathematical formulations and model code we refer to the official TIMES documentation - https://iea-etsap.org/index.php/documentation
• Input data for technologies and fuel prices are documented in the Technology Catalogue (Link)
• The entire open-source ON-TIMES energy system model, available on GitHub – Nordic Energy Research NCES
• The model files, which can be downloaded from the GitHub, contains all technology data on sector level and all demand projections, with references

Documentation for Balmorel:

For documentation of the Balmorel model we refer to the official Balmorel homepage www. Balmorel.com where a recent version of the model may also be downloaded.

• Moreover, Ea Energy Analyses, has produced an extensive user guide, which can be downloaded from Ea’s website. https://www.ea-energianalyse.dk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Balmorel_UserGuide.pdf
• Ea has also developed an easily accessible version of the model called BalmorelLite which allows users to set up and simulate energy systems by means of an online calculator, see http://balmorellite.dk/ To learn more about the models used please contact:

Kenneth Karlsson, IVL & Energy Modelling Lab: ON-TIMES

Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, EA Energy Analyses: BALMOREL

The full result dataset with all scenarios presented on this homepage can be downloaded as one file:Entire Result Dataset, download by right clicking the link and choose 'save link as..' – dataset