About Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios

The Nordic countries have a unique and long-standing cooperation on energy, which has created a solid foundation for a sustainable and secure energy supply in the region. Now, it is time to further Nordic energy cooperation with the green transition as the framework.

When the Nordic Prime ministers signed the joint Declaration on Nordic Carbon Neutrality in January 2019 – committing themselves to work towards carbon neutrality – Nordic Energy Research recognised the need for a publicly available research-based analysis, to gather Nordic perspectives on national and regional energy systems, and complement the ongoing work in each country.

Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios (NCES) aimed to identify and help prioritise – through scenario modelling – the necessary actions up to 2030 and map potential long-term pathways to carbon neutrality, and thereby support the joint Nordic declaration. This project illustrates how the Nordic countries can achieve the Nordic Vision 2030 to become the most sustainable and integrated region in the world, and make the green transition towards carbon neutrality a reality.

The NCES project builds on earlier Nordic Energy Research efforts. The Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives reports were published in 2013 and 2016, and drew on the best available knowledge at the time. However, the rapidly changing landscape of the energy sector has seen cost declines for energy technologies that were unimaginable a few years ago, while ambitions to curb climate change have risen around the world. These developments have changed the prospects for certain technologies and the conditions for the Nordic energy system, highlighting the need for an updated analysis.

The NCES analytical approach seeks to balance multiple factors that will influence outcomes and developed three scenarios to reflect a different core element:

• Carbon Neutral Nordic (CNN) seeks the least-cost pathway, taking into account current national plans, strategies, and targets.

• Nordic Powerhouse (NPH) explores the opportunity for the Nordics to play a larger role in the broader European energy transition by providing clean electricity, clean fuels, and carbon storage.

• Climate Neutral Behaviour (CNB) reflects Nordic societies taking additional energy and material efficiency measures in all sectors, ultimately leading to lower demand for both.

“It is likely we will see neither of the extremes, but rather a combination of all scenarios. This project shows the possibilities and potential barriers that lie ahead on the road to Nordic carbon neutrality.”

--Klaus Skytte, CEO Nordic Energy Research

To read more about this project and access the full report please visit the project page at Nordic Energy Research.

Acknowledgements

Nordic Clean Energy Scenarios – Solutions for Carbon Neutrality is a collaborative project between Nordic Energy Research who funded the project and is carried out by a Nordic team of researchers and consultants led by Energiforsk.

Project team

Energiforsk, EA Energy Analyses, Energy Modelling Lab, IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Profu, Thema, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland.

Contact

Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to:

Kevin Johnsen, Nordic Energy Research kevin.johnsen@nordicenergy.org